Who will be the next Number 10?
Polling stations are opened, on Thursday, May 7th, for one of the tightest general election of the history of the United Kingdom, maybe spelling the end of the bipartisanship between the conservatives and the Labours.
The suspense will be whole from the results of the elections, in the evening of May 7th. In any case, a question settles: who of David Cameron, current British Prime Minister, or of Ed Miliband, will be the tenant of 10 downing street? And what consequences on the future commitment of the United Kingdom in the European Union (EU)?
Neck and neck
According to the last polls published across the Channel, the Tories, major members of the governmental coalition consisted by David Cameron, and the Labour party of Ed Miliband, sticks seen that they would be 33 % each in the votes. In projection of seats, both parties would have appreciably the same number (273 each), on 650 that counts the House of Commons, the British Lower House of parliament.
Consequently, none of the two dominant parties of the British political class has the majority to him alone. Cameron and Miliband will have to lead negotiations with other political parties to train a government. What signs the end of a bipartisanship reigning over London for several decades.
New coalition government
But who will play royal maker's role? Let be the Liberals-democrats of Nick Clegg, or the independentists of the Scottish national Party (SNP). The first ones have already played this role because they are a member of the governmental coalition, with the conservatives. Nevertheless, the number of members of parliament (57) that they were able to make elect in 2010, date of the previous general election, risk of being weaker today, because according to certain British newspapers, LibDems would have no more than 27 members of parliament. Insufficient for each of two big parties because are needed a majority of 326 members of parliament to govern.
But the Labours seem all the same left for government, by becoming allied with LibDems then with SNP. The Scottish pro-independence party, considered as more leftist than the Labour, could take 52 members of parliament in Westminster, against 6 in 2010. But these seats a priori gained by the independentists would be especially seats of former Labour elected representatives, seen that the Scotland votes traditionally for this party, and the SNP could so punish the support of the Labours for the "No" in the independence of the Scotland, at the time of the referendum of September, 2014.
For or against the EU?
Somewhere, the vote of today will send a strong signal with the EU, because it is often written that the inhabitants of Albion are inhabited by the euroskepticism. And he expresses himself in particular through the United Kingdom independence party (Ukip), an extreme right-wing party which reunites more and more former conservatives, so pressing Cameron. Especially as if Cameron won the election, he would make a commitment to propose a referendum on the exit or not of the United Kingdom in the EU, in 2017. And seen the ambient euroskepticism across the Channel, in spite of the opposition of the circles of City which find their accounts there by being in the European Economic Area, the temptation of the exit is big within the population.
If the UK leaves the EU, it's its own problem and the Scots would be the losers because of their europhilia. For other European countries, it could be a way to save seen that they have right for the subsidies of the Common agricultural policy while it is almost non-existent at their home. No more "I want my money back"!
A trompe l'œil model
As the campaign moves forward, presses her mainstream French praise of new the British model of economic growth, as it made him before the crisis of 2008-2009. And for several obvious reasons: the British growth is superior to that of the other European countries, in particular France and Germany, then weakened unemployment rate, while leading a drastic austerity policy.
This fantasy spread by the upholders of the economic orthodoxy is rather attractive, but not convincing when we try to be more serious. Indeed, the British unemployment masks a growth of the poverty. A parliamentary report dating December, 2014 indicates that the poorest British households are the poorest compared to other developed countries. As well as in spite of the austerity policy led by the coalition Tories / LibDems, deleting thousands of public employments, the deficit was at the level of 6 % of the Gross domestic product in 2014, widely upper to that of France (4 % of the GDP) for example. Then two other clinkers in this wonderful presentation of Albion's model. In its number of May, 2015, the French magazine Alternatives Économiques calls back that the British lost of the purchasing power since 2009 (-2,5 %) and that the British workers are less productive than the French people for several years because according to Eurostat. In 2013 for example, the British produced 39,2€ per hour of work against 45,6€ for the French people.
The future Prime Minister will have a sacred job to be made.