Does America get fooled again, with Trump?
The election of Donald Trump to the White House is a sacred lesson, on an international scale, on the capacity of error of the polls(soundings). But also, the underestimate of the abstention of minorities and participation of the whites in the vote. In any case, with a republican majority at the Congress, the future president will have a big margin operation.
For many people, worldwide (except maybe in Russia), it is an earthquake which struck the spirits, at night from 8 till 9 November. The republican candidate Donald Trump succeeded in being elected a president of the United States, in front of his democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, by counting at least 289 presidential electors on 540. In particular, "swing states" as Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania, which(who) had voted for Barack Obama in 2012.
A journalistic defeat?
In any case, following the example of the British referendum having uncorked in Brexit that few journalists, columnists, pollsters, had considered in their analysis, the victory of Trump seemed unthinkable for the great majority of journalists, columnists or pollsters, that the tycoon of the real estate accused of running for Clinton, insisting gladly on the sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, islamophobic or still negrophobic escapades of Trump rather than the troubles of Clinton, in particular when FBI relaunched its survey on e-mails deprived of the democratic candidate when she was Secretary of State from 2009 till 2013, being able to contain files being a matter of the "Military secret", not coded, and potentially exposed to hacking.
An example of this journalistic defeat is the election night. Being in Paris to cover the "American Night" (“Nuit américaine” in French) in the Carreau du Temple, in Paris, I followed the live of CNN who rocked various polls before the announcement of the first results. And one of these polls indicated that the majority of the questioned voters (62 %) had already fixed their candidate's choice "before September" and that 7 % of them made their choice on the "last days". "The majority of people fixed their choice at the moment or Clinton was widely in front of Trump. She should thus win" declared young French people following this poll. It is to say if the confidence was there, before splitting in the course of hours, showing that many people did not see things coming.
The white uprising
This election corresponds to one of the last ones where the whites, and more exactly the WASP (White Anglo-Saxon Protestant), are still majority within the American population and where they are more used to voting that minorities. And that, Trump did not make a mistake by eyeing the white electorate. In particular, on the white proletariat and the white middle class because these two social classes consider themselves hurt by years Obama and by the globalization, and because the future former president would have too much favored minorities. And it is true in spite of an economic upturn noticed across the Atlantic. Where from the necessity for Trump to position against the treaty of free trade with the European Union, which is not right from now on any more to be, what is not one bad news in fact.
On the contrary, a lot of people, in particular in the media, considered that the vote of the Latinos was going to be raised historically, with regard to the xenophobic words of Trump, its desire to make build a wall along the border with Mexico and that the latter finances this wall. But there is every reason to believe that Latinos, as Afro-Americans, widely refrained for this election, grounds that their voice would not be taken into account. From now on, they will have to keep a low profile. A stray bullet on behalf of a white cop is not rare these last years, at the Uncle Sam.
A bipartisanship to be shaken
In any case, a full stop was found on this presidential election campaign of a certain mediocrity on behalf of the candidates of both dominant parties of the American political class, giving the impression of jumping out the frying pan into the fire. But a thing, different from abstention, seems to show the indifference growing for this bipartisanship bound to money, it is the vote for "Third parties".
Indeed, Trump and Clinton gathered 95.2 % of the votes (47.5 % vs 47.6 %), while Obama and Mitt Romney counted 98.3 % of the popular vote in 2012 (51.1 % vs 47.2 %). What means clearly that vote for the "Third parties", in particular for the Libertarian party and the Green party, almost tripled in four years! Sign that several million American citizens tilt for an alternative in the political system of which Trump is a member, although he swears not to be a member there and to want to change it.
A margin operation
At the same time that the presidential election, there was a renewal of the Congress. The republican majority stay ready, even if it keeps a short head to the Senate. Which will allow Trump to apply his program, based on a strong protectionism, a fight against the all-out immigration, the cure of austerity of the Federal state, the questioning of Obamacare to the access to the public health, the foreign policy of relaxation towards Russia and more firmness towards the Muslim countries, etc.
But will he have the means? And now, the question which can settle is the following one: are people from the United States going to dare to emigrate towards Canada, towards European countries? It will depend essentially on the capacity of Trump to gather all the citizens. Really, of his capacity to alienate the spirits, in particular, near minorities which were a target of choice for him.
In brief, as I said to my father: "People from the United States had well (re)elected George W. Bush as their president. They can then elect Trump."