On April 4th, the US Labor Department reported results of March, showing an creation of 192 000 jobs last month, the largest one for the beginning of the year. Moreover, the activity rate is up to 63.2%, the highest one for six months. These data confirm a resumption in the American economy, which was slowed down by the bad weather in January. Nevertheless, economists estimated the US could create 200 000 jobs in March and reduce unemployment rate to 6.6% of the working population, whereas in fact, this rate stays at 6.7%, according to the Labor Department.
But now, the key question is the following: does the Federal reverse (Fed), with its chair, Janet Yellen, really decrease its quantitative easing policy, or bond buying program? In other words: does the Fed reinforce "tapering"?
This question is important since the Fed's monetary policy is linked to the level of unemployment. Mrs Yellen, quite as her predecessor Ben Bernanke, holds on the official statement: the Fed will taper its monetary policy if unemployment rate is at 6.5% or below this target. Now, this rate is near to the target. And if the Fed applies its promise (tapering), there could be higher interest rates (better pay for lenders, higher cost for borrowers, tricky arbitration), repatriation of capital to the USA, and problems for developing economies, as it's the case for Latin American countries, South Africa, Turkey, or India for instance, with local currencies suffering from flight of capital denominated in US dollars.