In a week of the referendum on the future of the United Kingdom in the European Union, the camp of the exit is more and more majority. The dominant political parties are clearly divided on the topic, with big internal battles.
In the question "should I stay or I should go?", the British are more and more sensitive at the idea of leaving! Multiple polls give to the camp of the exit of the United Kingdom in the European Union (EU) a comfortable margin: 54%-46 % for The Times, 53%-47 % for The Guardian, 55%-45 % for The Independant. And it is true while the referendum will take place next Thursday, June 23rd. Where from a pessimism which gains the European Commission, which wants keeping Albion in the community space.
Tearing to the right
Divisions within the political parties are visible for several weeks on the positioning "in" or "out" to adopt. In particular on the side of the Conservative party, in the power. The Prime minister, David Cameron, is a supporter of the remainn in the EU, knowing that he caused this referendum to hope to have new specific advantages in front of European partners, as had made Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s ("I want my money back"). But within the party, traditionally eurosceptical, Brexit is encouraged. It is the former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, who leads the load. In particular, on the question of the European immigration, seen as a danger for the British economy because the European workers across the Channel are seen as people taking jobs to the British and pulling downwards wages. A xenophobic rhetoric assumed by M. Johnson, as well as by the party Ukip of Nigel Farage, who thinks of being on the roll.
What also takes place, it is that the battle for the direction of the Tories began between the Prime Minister and the former mayor of London. Even if they agree to lead an austerity policy, the question of the EU separated them in a frontal way and mister. Johnson is anxious to unbolt mister. Cameron of his base to become a future tenant of 10 Downing street.
A fragile Labour
To the left, it is hardly better. Most of the frames of the Labour Party are mainly pro-European and social-liberal, what arranges gladly Brussels, what sees an important support there. The problem is that Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the party since September, 2015, is a figure of the left wing of the party, who has never masked its Euroscepticism and his acerbic criticism of a liberal EU of whom he did not stop fighting by voting against repeatedly. But due to his position, mister. Corbyn finds to campaign for the remain, deducing that it is a means to fight against austerity, shaking the threats around the National Health Service (NHS) and reform from the inside the EU. An alter-Europeanist speech, deserving of a part of the European radical left, in particular in France, within the Left front.
A positioning which diverts a part of the left wing and the Labour electorate. A deputy of the left wing, Dennis Skinner, positioned for Brexit (cf link n°1), considering that European directives incite member countries to reduce little by little the rights of the workers in the whole of the community space. As well as more than a third of the Labour electorate, in particular the workers having been anxious to vote for Mr Corbyn, wishes to leave the EU. In any case, a left Brexit takes shape, in way underestimated by the observers, but the present, following the example of "no" from the left in France during the referendum on the constitutional treaty of May 29th, 2005.
A broken British society
As indicates it the site of French-speaking information site Grey Britain (cf link n°2), the referendum updates fractures within the British company. Under a social angle, the workers and the employees are mainly pro-Brexit, whereas frames support the preservation in the EU. At the generational level, the (rare) young politicized British are 78 % for the remain, whereas the old men (more than 65 years), opt for the retreat for 68 % of them. Within regions, the North of England is sensitive to Brexit whereas London and especially the Scotland are for the preservation. What reminds that in case of Brexit, Edinburgh goes of new throw a process of referendum for its independence, in spite of the relative failure in September, 2014.
Finally, economic sectors have very divergent opinions on the vote to be held. The manufacturing industry supports widely Brexit, believing that its situation would be better by leaving the EU and one of its arguments is that "freedom to move capital, commodities and labour at will often destroys more jobs than it creates". On the other hand, the finance wants Albion staying in the EU. The City is afraid of a disaster in case of Brexit. Moreover, with the last published polls, the London Stock Exchange is in fall these last days and that Pound sterling could well depreciate on the foreign exchange market.
A great tension which could end after the referendum's results.
P.S: a tragic example of the split within the British population, it is the murder of the pro-European Labour deputy Jo Cox by an extremist pro-Brexit, with a handgun. All my condolences to the close relatives of the elected representative.