Could Labour have the majority for the next general elections?
The Ukip comes at Westminster. Last Thursday, Douglas Carswell, former member of the Conservative party, became the first deputy of the Ukip, considered as a far-right political party, entering in the House of Parliament.
This partial elections proves a dynamic for the nationalists already observed for the last European elections in May, when the Ukip won it, with more than 25% of votes.
Where is the left?
This election is a defeat for the actual coalition, composed by the Conservative party of Prime minister David Cameron, and Liberal-democrats led by vice-Prime minister Nick Clegg. A signal for M.Cameron in order to avoid a defeat for his party in next May because traditional voters of the Tories are now seduced by the Ukip and his leader, Nigel Farage. An additional worry for 10 Downing street, after the referendum in Scotland last September, where the Prime minister was able to breathe a big sigh of relief after the victory of the "NO".
Moreover, the N.10 was supported during the Scottish referendum by the Labour party, main opposition party led by Ed Miliband, which must represent an alternative to the liberal/conservative ideology of the Tories. And for the moment, according to survey polls, the Labour could have the absolute majority at Westminster in next May. But, 2 things could change the ambition of Ed Miliband becoming the new Prime minister of the United Kingdom:
- Ed Miliband has to be attractive for middle-class voters and the City (i.e, Finance). As a consequence, the political and economic programme of the Labour should be closed to that of the Tories, with a marginal distribution. Indeed, Labour has to social-liberal, as it is since Tony Blair's time. But trade unions, which formed the left-wing of the party, could be disappointed by Miliband's position about the electoral target because the working-class could vote for the Ukip now.
- Scotland used to vote for the Labour. But with the referendum campaign and the support for the "NO" by the Labour, Scottish voters will think twice before voting and if a socialist party would present candidates all over the UK, and especially in Scotland, this could avoid an absolute majority for the party and could force it to make alliance with socialists (if they exist) or LibDems, what seems more obvious.
Finally, the British left is scarcely represented in the Parliament. However, it could create a dynamic with this global economic and ecological crisis. And as the American band The Offspring sang 20 years ago: