With time, the idea of Brexit grows up and the major part of European leaders becomes alarmed at that assumption. But it could be a good opportunity for the European Union to reinforce it by weakening Britain, in a cynical way (Scotland).
David Cameron is engaged in a race against time with the referendum he promised to the British about the future of the United Kingdom (UK) in the European Union (EU), next june. The British Prime minister wants new agreements with his partners - mainly Germany and France - for his country. For instance, Cameron negociates for a possibility to the British parliament to refuse an European law, whereas treaties stipulate that a law voted by the European parliament has to be applicated at national scale; or a limitation of European migration and social benefits allowed for them.
Back to the future
"History repeats itself: the first as tragedy, then as farce." This sentence of German philosopher and economist Karl Marx in The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon corresponds well to the situation of the UK and its main European partners. David Cameron for Margareth Thatcher, Angela Merkel for Helmuth Kohl and François Hollande for François Mitterrand. The 2010s are a caricature of the 1980s, with Conservative leaders in London and Berlin, and a "socialist" in Paris.
Miss Maggie, as the French singer Renaud nicknamed her, blackmailed with her European partners in the 1980s, except of she obtained agreements about law or about agriculture, with this famous quote: "I want my money back". And she won! She supported all policies for free trade and deregulation within the European community, that went in a neoliberal sense. And now, we have Cameron who uses the same strategy in order to show to the British the great influence of the UK in the EU. The former French president, Charles De Gaulle, warned us about the attitude of the "Trojan horse of the United States" in the 1960s.
Brexit, an opportunity
For the moment, some opinion polls gave a victory of the Brexit (contraction between Britain and exit), by 52%. This is volatile and the impact of the negociations between London and Brussels is not assumed by polls. But, this is considered as a threat for political leaders in Europe. The French Prime minister, Manuel Valls, repeats that a Brexit could be a disaster for the Union. Why a disaster? Because the UK gives inspiration to the whole continental policy and all the European elites prefered conservatives than leftist leaders such as Alexís Tsípras in Greece. Don't forget, dear lectors, that some countries - whose Germany - wanted a Grexit in 2015.
In fact, a Brexit is an opportunity to change the future of the EU for several reasons:
- A Brexit reinforces members of the eurozone since until now, 19 of 28 EU members use the single currency. The UK has kept pound sterling and the Bank of England is disconnected of the eurosystem.
- A Brexit will force the EU to send massively refugees to Albion, without qualm. Actually, refugees coming from Syria or other less developped countries on war, rising tensions within the European space, whereas most of the refugees wanna go to the UK, even if they would prefer a come-back to their homeland, after the war was over. But London refused them and they're blocked in Calais, developping tensions between inhabitants and French authorities.
- A Brexit would create a crisis in the EU in the short run. But the crisis will be more important in the UK. Why? The City and big business are europhile whereas a huge part of the British is traditionnaly eurosceptic and it was traduced politically with the far-right party Ukip, led by Nigel Farage. Moreover, one part of the UK is proudly pro-European, it's Scotland. With a Brexit, a new occasion to demand a referendum for the independance of Edinburgh against London. After the Pirrhic victory on September 2014, Cameron made concessions to the Scottish parliament, in order to avoid this threat of a divided UK. The general elections of May 2015 showed that strategy wasn't so efficient since the Scottish national party, more leftist than the Labour party until Jemery Corbyn's leadership, had won almost the seats reserved to Scotland (56/59) in the House of Commons.
Finally, the EU has more to win with a Brexit and it should tell: "Britain, if you stay, it would be double".